THE MARKETS
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The uncertainty over the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East (with its possible repercussions on energy prices) has now been added to that over US tariffs policy, which remains high as the expiry of the suspension of reciprocal tariffs approaches. In the US, however, the performance of both domestic demand and labour market conditions remains robust, but we continue to expect a significant slowdown in the second half of the year: we believe the Fed will have to wait until at least September (or even later) for a rate cut.
SUSPICIOUS EMAIL